The Perils of War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Certain parts of the world seem to be forever in the cockpit of conflict.  For instance, Israel and neighboring countries Lebanon and Syria.  For over 70 years, nearly constant fighting.  India and Pakistan, two nations that have been sniping and fighting since independence in the late 1940s.  The Balkan nations (i.e. the old Yugoslavia), have periods of peace, but a lot of bloody history between then.  And, once again, the Caucasus region is on the verge of exploding again. The Caucasus is a mountainous region where eastern Europe meets the Middle East (West Asia), and is home to a wide variety of ethnic and religious groups, many of whom do not like each other.  The region is split between the Russian regions of Chechnya and Dagestan, as well as the independent nations of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.  South of these last two states we find the larger nations of Turkey and Iran.  Certainly, a volatile mixture of nations and peoples.

Recent (meaning since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991) conflicts include separatist movements in Georgia, and a Russian invasion of Georgia; separtist wars in Russian Chechnya and Dagestan that also involved Jihadist Chechen terrorist attacks inside Russia; and nearly continuous fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan that now, in the summer of 2020, amidst the COVID Pandemic and global economic crisis, is threatening to explode into a potentially larger regional war.

While it is possible that the recent border clashes between these two old-time Caucasian foes will fizzle out after some chest-beating and insulting propaganda, it is also possible that these recent hostilities can draw in their bigger allies.  Russia has backed Armenia for decades, and maintains a military base on Armenian soil.  Azerbaijan has strong economic and ethnic ties to Turkey, which happens to be a long-time foe of the Armenians, due in part to the Armenian genocide conducted by the Ottoman Turks during World War One.

Turkey has publicly backed Azerbaijan, and offered up Turkish military weapons and aid.  This is not an idle offer.  In recent months, Turkey has used their powerful military drone fleet (and the very effective tactics they have developed to swarm those drones at an enemy) to give a bloody nose to Syria’s army, and also to rescue Turkey’s allies in Libya.  Turkish drone intervention in this latest round of Armenian-Azerbaijani fighting could prove effective, but could also force Russia’s hand and bring them into the conflict as well.  This is a situation fraught with peril.  

Let us all hope that cooler heads prevail, and this latest round of fighting is allowed by both sides to fade away.