Ethiopia in Conflict 2020: Unrest, Somalia Intervention, Egypt and Sudan Tensions

Ethiopia is one of Africa’s largest functioning democracies, with a popularly elected Prime Minister, yet is engulfed in numerous internal and external conflicts, in addition to dealing with the COVID pandemic.

Murder of Hachalu Hundesa

Internal unrest has risen with the murder, apparently for political reasons, of ethnic Oromo activist Hachalu Hundesa on June 29, 2020.  His assassination sparked major protests against the government, which in turn led to the arrest and detentions of over 5,000 people, including major opposition political figures.  Many of the detained are incommunicado, leading rights organizations like Amnesty International to call for their release. Also, the government has been turning off the nation’s internet, to make it more difficult for protesters to organize. Keep in mind, that the Oromo Rebellion that began in 1973 only just ended in a peace deal in 2018.  Nearly 45 years of war and hostility don’t just evaporate overnight.

Oromo-Somali Clashes in Ethiopia

In addition to this latest political crisis, two of Ethiopia’s major ethnic groups have increased their clashes (ongoing since 2016), resulting in large numbers of deaths.  The Oromo (the same ethnic group as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and the late singer-activist Hundesa) have been fighting against Ethiopia’s Somali ethnic group over land and grazing rights.  

Oromo Regions in Ethiopia Map

Ethiopian Intervention in Somalia

Also, speaking of Somalis, the Ethiopian Army is engaged in Somalia, as part of the African Union’s military contingent in Somalia.  With nearly 4,000 troops in Somalia, the Ethiopians form the largest part of the AU mission there as they combat the al-Qaida affiliate called al-Shabaab.  On July 19, for example new reports detailed how the Ethiopian troops defeated an al-Shabaab attack on their base near Halgan in Somalia.  The United States is also engaged against al-Qaida and al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Ethiopia-Egypt Tension and the Dam

And if that were not enough, on the diplomatic front, Ethiopia has been in tense talks with Egypt and Sudan over a new hydro-electric dam on the Nile River (the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) that Ethiopia has built and is beginning to fill. The downriver nation Egypt are very concerned that the Ethiopian dam will negatively affect the amount of Nile River water that flows from the Ethiopian highlands, and there has been talk of Egypt  taking military action against Ethiopia.  Sudan at this point is looking forward to cheaper hydro-power from Ethiopia and better flood control along the Nile once the dam is functioning.  As a sign of the increasing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy alleged Egyptian security with the Hachalu Hundesa killing as a means of creating unrest. Egypt denies this, and the Ethiopian protesters blame the government or pro-government forces for the killing.

Such a military confrontation would be disastrous for the entire region, as well as for American foreign policy, since Egypt and Ethiopia are both important American allies in the region.  Also, recent overtures by China in the region (they have a base in neighboring Djibouti) as well as the ongoing threat of Jihadist groups like al-Qaida, al-Shabaab, and ISIS, continue to make this a very dire situation.

And, of course, Ethiopia is also affected by the world-wide COVID pandemic.  How Ethiopia navigates these serious internal and external crises and threats will affect not only Ethiopia, but the entire region.  Egypt and Ethiopia continue to talk, so there is still hope on that front.