What if?  What if Russia’s very public and not-secret buildup near Ukraine is a form of high-level misdirection?  The Russian  military uses a doctrine called Maskirovka (little masquerade) to fool their opponents as to what they are really planning on doing. This is a major part of Russian military doctrine going back at least to the Second World War.

Russia’s military buildup has NATO and the world looking at the Ukraine border region. But, what if that buildup is designed to deflect attention from the Baltic region instead?  If Vladimir Putin wants to recreate the geography of the Soviet Union, the Baltic makes a lot more sense than chunks of Ukraine from a strategic viewpoint.

NATO member Estonia is, from the Russian perspective, geographically very close to the major Russian city of St. Petersburg.  Also, the Russian province of Kaliningrad is physically separate from the rest of Russia, with Lithuanian and Belarusan territory in the way. Strategically, this is a problem for Russia in any future war to defend that enclave. (see map below)

Recent comments from the Swedish military makes it appear that Sweden believes their Baltic island of Gotland is in danger from Russia. Mysterious drones have been seen over the island.  In addition, recent Russian naval activity in the Baltic makes the Swedes nervous. And Gotland is strategically situated as a possible access point (or denial of access point) to the eastern Baltic. Sweden has publicly increased her military presence on that island.

If Russia moved on the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with the goal of re-absorbing them into  Russia (they were conquered by the Soviets in 1940), then Kaliningrad  would be contiguous with Russia proper.  That would be a big win for Putin both strategically and politically.

Putin may be betting (and he is a risk-taker) that most members of NATO would not be willing to engage in all-out war to retake the Baltic States once they are overrun by the Red Army.  Especially if they also seize Gotland as a way of denying the eastern Baltic to NATO  naval and air forces.  

In this scenario, Russia is building up near Ukraine as a distraction. They may indeed hit Ukraine, but more as a means of drawing NATO’s attention from the real goal, re-conquering the Baltic States and linking up with Kaliningrad. Militarily, the Baltics are weaker, and thus a more tempting target, than the much larger Ukraine.

The size of a Russian force to take the Baltics initially is likely much less than would be needed to fight an all-out war with Ukraine in the current invasion scenario.  Might the Russians be able to do so with troops already in the Baltic/Kaliningrad  region?

Russian forces in Kaliningrad  could move east to link up with Russian and allied Belarusan forces before major NATO reinforcements could arrive.  And, if Poland is not directly attacked, the Poles may not be willing to facilitate a NATO ground offensive from their territory to liberate the Baltic States and thus become a battleground (again).

If NATO is not willing to defend NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (Sweden is not a member-yet), then Putin will have effectively neutered NATO for the future.  See also: Current Russian Wars and Conflicts

Putin has a big win, NATO is wrecked, and Russia again controls the eastern Baltic.  And if NATO is proven to be a paper tiger, then Putin can later on chew off chunks of Ukraine at his leisure.

This scenario may be what is in Putin’s mind now.  He may think NATO is divided enough and distracted enough (pandemic-related unrest in many nations, economic disruptions, etc.) to not really challenge a fait accompli once Russian forces are on the ground in the Baltics and possibly Gotland.  

History is full of autocrats and dictators who think that their enemies will fold easily when confronted with a surprise attack. Putin may think he can do this and get away with it. Or, he could underestimate NATO’s resolve and we have a major war on our hands. Either scenario is scary and best avoided.

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Below is a map (courtesy of Wikipedia) with Kaliningrad, Gotland, and St. Petersburg circled in red for reference.

Russia Baltic Attack Theory Map 2022