Renewed War in Western Sahara 2020

Renewed War in Western Sahara

The long-dormant war in the Western Sahara, interrupted for the past 30 years by a truce, is erupting into renewed violence with military clashes between the Moroccan military and the Polisario Front. These clashes represent the most serious violence between the two sides since the 1991 truce took effect.

Western Sahara Division

Map of the Western Sahara, showing the truce lines between Morocco (Blue) and the Polisario Front (Green)

Background to the War in Western Sahara

The Polisario Front began its long war of independence in 1973, in what was then known as the Spanish Sahara. The Polisario waged a guerrilla war against the Spanish, enjoying significant success, only to have the whole of the Spanish Sahara occupied and divided by Morocco and Mauritania in 1975. Within months, the Polisario renewed their war, this time against the neighboring North African nations.

The cost of the war soon drove the Mauritanians out of the war on August 5, 1979, allowing Morocco to occupy the entire Western Sahara. Fighting between Morocco and the Polisario reached a stalemate in the mid-1980s until 1991, when a United Nations-brokered cease-fire took effect. The two sides proved unable come to a permanent resolution of the conflict, in large part due to disagreement over who would be permitted to vote in a referendum, as called for in the truce agreement.

Per the terms of the truce, Morocco continued to occupy and administer the western part of the territory, with the Polisario controlling the eastern portion, along with a small strip of land to the south between the Moroccan-controlled region and Mauritania.

In October, 2020, Polisario forces blockaded the road at Guerguerat crossing, located in the buffer zone on the Moroccan-Mauritanian border, trapping some Moroccan truck drivers on the Mauritanian side of the border. On November 13, the Moroccan military launched an operation to clear the Polisario blockade.

Following this operation, the Polisario leadership declared a renewal of their war with Morocco, followed by more fighting.

What this War in Western Sahara May Mean

Some analysts see the timing of this move by the Polisario as being related to the ongoing post-election political situation in the United States, which is a primary ally and patron of the Moroccan government, assuming that the Trump Administration is sufficiently distracted to become involved in this renewed conflict in Western Sahara. Additionally, the ongoing multi-national war in the larger West African region against Islamist forces aligned with al-Qaida and the Islamic State (which involves French, British, American and local forces) continues, and, while the secular, leftist Polisario has had no known connections with Islamist forces, the possibility of the Western Sahara conflict and the Jihadist campaigns in the region becoming entangled may prove to be a major concern for the Western powers who support the local governments, including the Moroccan regime.

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