Israel-Hamas War Could Grow: Scenarios for an Expanded War

As the world awaits the inevitable Israeli ground offensive into the Gaza Strip, the concerns over a wider regional conflict growing out of this latest, and worst Israel-Hamas war are increasing.

 

On October 7, 2023, Hamas forces breached Israel’s border defenses and began several days of attacks, massacres, and other war crimes as the Jihadist terrorist group invaded Israel.  Within days, Israel’s military expanded as hundreds of thousands of Israeli reservists reported for duty as the Hamas attackers were repulsed in southern Israel.  As of this writing (October 14, 2023), Israel has unleashed pounding air and artillery attacks and has issued an order for Gaza civilians to leave the northern part of the Gaza Strip. This is undoubtedly in preparation for a major ground attack into the Gaza Strip by Israeli forces.  The Israeli government has stated that a major goal of this war is to eliminate Hamas as  a threat. Complicating this is the presence of some 150 hostages kidnapped by Hamas in the initial attack, and the fact that  Hamas terrorists prefer to hide their troops, weapons, ammunition, and leadership among the civilian population of Gaza.  

 

It should be noted that Hamas was not elected to rule Gaza. In 2007, Hamas fought a brief war against the governing body of the Palestinians, called the Palestinian Authority, and took over the Gaza Strip by force of arms. Hamas has ruled Gaza ever since, using the civilian population as cover while conducting multiple wars against Israel.

 

While the Hamas-Israel conflict has the potential to be one of the bloodiest of the Arab-Israeli Wars, a major fear is that this localized war could grow to involve the entire Middle East region, or possibly the world.  Let’s look at possible scenarios for an expanded war growing out of the Israel-Hamas war.

 

1. Scenario: War Expands into the West Bank

In the West Bank, the other major Palestinian population center, which is under partial Israeli control, over 50 Palestinians have died and 300 wounded in various attacks by Hamas supporters and in Israeli military and civilian retaliation.  The fear of a full-blown Palestinian uprising in the West Bank cannot be discounted.

 

 

2. Scenario: Iran Joins the War

Hamas is backed by Iran. This is a well-known fact.  Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that fought a bloody war with Israel in 2006, is also backed by Iran. As is the Syrian government of Bashar Assad.  They all owe Iran.  And they are allied with Hamas.  Since the October 7 attack, there have already been several incidents of fighting along both the Lebanese and Syrian borders.In addition, Israel conducted pre-emptive attacks on Syria’s two main airports, presumably to prevent Iran from supplying munitions, troops, etc. to Hezbollah and/or Syria.

If Hezbollah joins the fight, and Israel faces a two-front war, then this becomes a regional conflict.  In this scenario, given the high degree of Hezbollah, Iranian, and Palestinian guerrilla groups in Syria, it is highly likely that Syria is also a front in this expanded war.

 

3. Scenario: Hezbollah and Syria Join the War

If Hezbollah and/or Syria joins the war, then it is highly unlikely that Iran stands by quietly. In addition, many Israelis believe Iran was behind the Hamas attacks, and potential Israeli retribution is probable. If Israel strikes Iran, then Hezbollah and Syria likely will join in the war, if they had not already.

 

4. Scenario: The United States Joins the War

The United States, United Kingdom, and other Western allies of Israel are moving naval and other military assets into the region to support Israel. The stated goal of the United States is to deter “third party” forces from joining in the war.  Hezbollah has warned the U.S. to stay out of it. Again, if the war expands to include Lebanon, Syria, and/or Iran, American intervention is highly likely. 

 

5. Scenario: French Intifadah

In France, pro-Palestinian protests have turned violent, and there have been possible terrorist attacks.  France has a large Muslim population (immigrants and immigrant descendants from North Africa and the Middle East).  This population feels marginalized and undervalued, and believes they face racial and religious persecution in French culture. Some analysts believe France is ripe for a ‘French Intifada’ style uprising.

 

6. Scenario: China Invades Taiwan; North Korea Invades South Korea

Both Taiwan and South Korea have expressed concern that their main antagonists, China and North Korea, respectively, may use the Israel-Hamas War as a cover to launch their own surprise attacks.  Especially since America’s munitions supply has already been drawn down to supply Ukraine, and now even more of America’s stocks of war supplies are being sent to Israel.  Some experts say this fear is overblown, given that any military buildup that would lead to invasions in Asia would be easily seen beforehand. Israel used to think that of Hamas, also. Surprise attacks are feasible if done right. 

 

If either China or North Korea do attempt to take advantage of America’s distraction (and don’t forget the internal political chaos in the United States right now), America would be at war. The U.S. has promised to help Taiwan in an invasion scenario, and American troops are in South Korea. This scenario turns into a world war.

 

7. Scenario: Russia Joins the War

And then there is Russia. Amidst the ongoing and very bloody Russia-Ukraine War, we see constant threats and aggressive talk from Moscow toward the Baltic States, Poland, and NATO in general. While it is actually unlikely Russia would intentionally open up a new front, that is assuming rational decision-making by Vladimir Putin. 

 

And let us not forget that, since 2014, Russia has maintained a large military presence in Syria, partially to combat ISIS and various anti-Assad rebel groups.  While the numbers of Russian troops and weapons systems in Syria are reduced now due to the Ukraine War, their continued presence in Syria could be a complicating factor if Syria and Israel engage in a full-scale war. An errant Israeli airstrike that kills a significant number of Russian troops could draw Moscow into the war. And if that happened, would America stand by idly? Likely not.

 

As we can see from these possible war escalation scenarios, the Israel-Hamas war could easily, in some cases, expand into a major regional war, or, less likely (we hope) into a Third World War.  Since the predicted Israeli ground offensive will probably last for months, there is still plenty of opportunity for expansion of this terrible war.