The Current World Wars Resemble the 1930s, but with a Difference

The world is in a dangerous, but familiar stage right now. The war in Ukraine, economic problems in most of the world, the worldwide rise of populist leaders who seem to reject conventional behaviors and political discourse, and a re-alignment of international alliances. All of these events seem to mimic, in many ways, the world situation of the 1930s, which led, as we know, to World War Two.

To this observer, the confluence of events these past few years brings to mind the situation the world saw in the 1930s. More and more nations turned to extreme right-wing populist leaders (think Franco, Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, among others), either through violence, the ballot box, or a combination of the two. Conflict and warfare escalated, either through racist or colonial attitudes (Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia, Japan’s invasion of China), or through severe ideological clashes (Spanish Civil War, political election violence in pre-Hitler Germany).

Further, we saw the growth of the idea that a larger, more powerful nation had the right to seize land from neighboring nations, sometimes with the excuse that the neighboring nation used to “belong” to the larger state. Examples of the 1930s include Germany’s seizures of Austria and Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary also taking bites of Czechoslovakia, and the Soviet Union annexing the Baltic States and going to war with Finland over border territory. And, of course, Hitler’s Germany claimed land in Poland, and then launched World War Two in Europe with the invasion of Poland, assisted by their partners, the Soviets, who also invaded Poland some two weeks later.

Note that every nation listed above that conducted these acts of aggression had authoritarian governments, both from the Left and the Right of the political spectrum. Germany, Italy, Franco’s Spain, Poland, Hungary, and Japan all had Right-wing dictatorial regimes. The Soviet Union, of course, was a Leftist totalitarian nightmare ruled by the bloody-handed Joseph Stalin and the Communist Party.

Parallels With the 1930s

The parallels to the situation in 2022 are clear. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is really a 1930s-style land-grab by a larger power ruled by an authoritarian leader. That leader, Vladimir Putin, has also publicly threatened the Baltic States, Finland, and Poland, among others. Iran, a Russian ally, and an authoritarian regime with a religious base, is heavily involved in conflict in many other nations, including Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Israel and Palestine, and now, with Iran’s arms and training deal with Russia, in Ukraine as well. Part of Iran’s aggression is in the form of support for non-democratic, religiously based Jihadist militias, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria.

In east Asia, we see North Korea acting badly again, with a recent  cross-border shooting between North and South Korea, and more frequent missile launches that are clearly designed to intimidate South Korea and Japan. The biggest threat of all in that part of the world is China’s continued buildup of both threatening propaganda and military strength aimed at destroying democracy in Taiwan. In recent years, we have seen China stoke border tensions with India, while also conducting a military buildup and harassment of other neighbors in the South China Sea region.

Just as in the 1930s, now, in 2022, we see increasingly bad behavior from authoritarian regimes from both the Right (Russia and Iran) and the Left (China and North Korea).

In the 1930s, those nations that called themselves democracies stood in a mostly impotent fashion as the dictators expanded their power and territory. The League of Nations did nothing more serious than expel some of the aggressors. The United States pursued a largely isolationist policy until the late 1930s. While there was an existing British-French alliance, there was no parallel to today’s NATO alliance. And that is the difference between the 1930s and today.

NATO Flag

The Difference Today: NATO

NATO is at the forefront of helping resist aggression in the current situation, helping Ukraine with military, political, and economic support. While not directly engaging Russia, NATO is waging an effective proxy war to stave off Russia’s aggression. The United States recently deployed the 101st Airborne Division to eastern Europe, very near the Ukraine border. Other American and NATO forces are also deployed to other NATO nations bordering Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, both as a defense against Russia, but also as a warning to Russia not to go too far in her aggression.

In the Asia-Pacific theater, a less formal alliance, including the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and India are working together to contain North Korean and, especially, Chinese aggression. Note that all the nations in this list of allies are democracies.

The world of the 1930s allowed authoritarian aggression to go unchecked until it was too late, resulting in allowing the most devastating war in human history to unfold. The world of 2022 is different. The democracies are fighting back and actively working together to stop further aggression. The swift and effective help given to Ukraine, along with the punitive measures enacted on the Russian economy, may give pause to China’s actions on Taiwan. Even if China does decide to go for it on Taiwan, there is an alliance ready to oppose this potential Communist land-grab. Vladimir Putin is making noises about escalating his war with nuclear weapons. Again, the firm alliance of democracies is saying, loud and clear, that there would be severe consequences if Russia went nuclear in Ukraine.

Conclusion

The “West” as this wide alliance of democracies is often referred to, must stand firm against the loose alliance of authoritarian regimes. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, along with their junior partners in Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iraqi Shiite militias, are all bad actors with a hatred of democracy, religious freedom, and liberty. And they are all opponents of the current world order. Just like their authoritarian ancestors of the 1930s. The West must stand strong to prevent further aggression and expansion of the power of these dictators. World War Two happened in part due to the weakness of the established international order. The United States and the coalitions we lead, must ensure that aggression is met with firmness and strength. The consequences of not doing so are too terrible to allow.